SIMPLE-G: A multiscale framework for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability

U.L.C. Baldos, I. Haqiqi, T.W. Hertel, M. Horridge, J. Liu DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104805 Abstract: We introduce SIMPLE-G, a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment- Gridded version, which is a novel tool for evaluating sustainability policies in a global context while factoring in local heterogeneity in land…

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Advancing diagnostic model evaluation to better understand water shortage mechanisms in institutionally complex river basins

Antonia Hadjimichael, Julianne Quinn, Patrick Reed DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028079 Abstract: Water resources systems models enable valuable inferences on consequential system stressors by representing both the geophysical processes determining the movement of water, and the human elements distributing it to its various competing uses. This study contributes a diagnostic evaluation framework that…

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Deep learning for creating surrogate models of precipitation in Earth system models

Theodore Weber; Austin Corotan; Brian Hutchinson; Ben Kravitz; Robert Link DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020 Abstract: We investigate techniques for using deep neural networks to produce surrogate models for short-term climate forecasts. A convolutional neural network is trained on 97 years of monthly precipitation output from the 1pctCO2 run (the CO2 concentration increases by 1 %…

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Future western U.S. building electricity consumption in response to climate and population drivers: A comparative study of the impact of model structure

Casey D. Burleyson, Gokul Iyer, Mohamad Hejazi, Sonny Kim, Page Kyle, Jennie S. Rice, Amanda D. Smith, Z. Todd Taylor, Nathalie Voisin, Yulong Xie DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118312 Abstract: Projections of building electricity consumption are used in multiple fields and for a variety of purposes, from energy utility investment decisions to global…

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Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid

Nathalie Voisin, Ana Dyreson, Tao Fu, Matt O’Connell, Sean W.D. Turner, Tian Zhou, Jordan Macknick DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115467 Abstract: Climate change is expected to affect the availability of water for electricity generation, yet the propagation of climate impacts across a large and diverse power grid remains unexplored. In this study, we…

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Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?

J. D. Quinn, A. Hadjimichael, P. M. Reed, S. Steinschneider DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001650 Abstract:Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for “scenario‐neutral” analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with…

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U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Hamidreza Zoraghein and Brian C. O’Neill DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083374 Abstract: Spatial population distribution is an important determinant of both drivers of regional environmental change and exposure and vulnerability to it. Spatial projections of population must account for changes in aggregate population, urbanization, and spatial patterns of development, while accounting for uncertainty…

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