Welcome to the Multisector Dynamics Uncertainty blog! This blog provides a mix of training, discussion of recent publications, and updates on news and UQ/SD events.  If you have content you would like to contribute to the blog, please contact Multisector.Uncertainty@gmail.com.

Dynamic adaptation to climate change: framing the challenge of uncertainty characterization for human-environmental systems

By Jon Herman, UC Davis Multi-sector infrastructure systems face a number of uncertainties that are difficult to characterize and quantify. These include exogenous uncertainty in climate forcing, propagated through a chain of models and downscaling procedures; endogenous uncertainty in human-environmental system dynamics across scales; and sampling uncertainty due to the finite length of historical observations…

Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?

J. D. Quinn, A. Hadjimichael, P. M. Reed, S. Steinschneider DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001650 Abstract:Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for “scenario‐neutral” analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods….