Originally published in our July 2023 newsletter (Issue 21)
Julia’s research in HyperFACETS evaluates how climate mitigation strategies, climate impacts, and adaptation measures affect outcomes across the electricity system and its connected sectors, Julia aims to demonstrate the value of, and necessity for, planning for complex system interactions to increase resilience.
Julia Szinai is a postdoctoral fellow at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, in the Earth and Environmental Sciences Area. She is also the new co-chair of the Early Career Development Working Group, and is excited to help support the success of early career researchers as future leaders of the MSD field. Julia’s research focuses on climate change mitigation and adaptation of the electricity system and interdependent sectors, including water, transportation, and buildings. Julia has an interdisciplinary background, having earned a PhD in Energy and Resources, a Masters of Public Policy, and a BA in economics and Spanish, all from UC Berkeley. Throughout her graduate studies she researched at the Pacific Institute, Natural Resources Defense Council, and different areas of Berkeley Lab. Prior to graduate studies, she consulted in the energy and finance sectors and worked at an electric utility in long-term resource planning. In earlier MSD research, Julia studied the interplay between electricity decarbonization and transportation electrification, otherwise known as vehicle-grid integration. Through a novel linkage of an agent-based mobility model and a high-resolution electricity dispatch model, she quantified the achievable benefits of managed electric vehicle charging.
Julia’s current research centers on the dual challenge faced by the electricity system as both a source of GHG emissions and an infrastructure system itself vulnerable to climate change impacts: decarbonizing generation, while also adapting to changing resource availability and demands. Climate change also affects the electricity system through its water sector interdependencies, especially in the Western US where the managed water system is energy-intensive and hydropower is a large source of electricity generation. However, the ways and extent that such multisector dynamics may exacerbate or offset climate change impacts and related adaptation strategies are unclear. In her research, Julia synthesized the fragmented literature and developed a generalized framework for understanding how climate change may affect the energy-water relationship. In a case study of California, she found that by the end-century—when climate impacts on water supply, air-conditioning demand, and hydropower are expected to be greatest—energy requirements of some water sector adaptation strategies may exceed the direct climate impacts on the energy system, demonstrating the value of cross-sectoral coordination to ensure efficient and reliable energy and water provision.
As part of the DOE HyperFACETS project, Julia is now linking climate, water management, and electricity system planning models, with guidance from water and energy stakeholders. Julia helped develop a Western US-wide, climatically-driven hydrology and water management model with a particular emphasis on estimating climate impacts on hydropower generation and water-related energy use. Under an ensemble of climate scenarios, model results indicate that in many key basins, streamflow decreases while reliance on groundwater increases to meet growing agricultural water demand. In the absence of adaptation measures, she finds that these changes lead to reduced hydropower generation and higher energy use related to water. Julia then uses a detailed electricity system model of the WECC region to evaluate how the electricity system could be planned to adapt to a range of potential climate impacts and water sector interactions while transitioning to a carbon-free generation portfolio. Because these hydropower generation declines tend to occur during periods when electricity demand grows, initial results suggest that grid planners will need to invest in significant amounts of additional solar and battery infrastructure to maintain grid reliability and decarbonization goals.
Highlighted Articles:
[1] Szinai J, Deshmukh R, Kammen D, Jones A. Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study. Environmental Research Letters. 2020 December 16; 15(12):124065-. Available from: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc378 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc378
[2] Siirila-Woodburn E, Rhoades A, Hatchett B, Huning L, Szinai J, Tague C, Nico P, Feldman D, Jones A, Collins W, Kaatz L. A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. 2021 October 26; 2(11):800-819. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00219-y DOI: 10.1038/s43017-021-00219-y
[3] Yates D, Szinai J, Jones A. Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate-Resilient Electricity System Planning. Under Review. 2022 October 19. DOI:10.1002/essoar.10512623.1