Representing Socio-Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Jennifer Morris, John Reilly, Sergey Paltsev, Andrei Sokolov, Kenneth Cox DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002239 Abstract: Socio-economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait…

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Power and Pathways: Exploring Robustness, Cooperative Stability, and Power Relationships in Regional Infrastructure Investment and Water Supply Management Portfolio Pathways

David F. Gold,Patrick M. Reed,David E. Gorelick,Gregory W. Characklis DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002472 Abstract: Cooperative management of natural resources is a key component of a transition to a sustainable society and urban water supply planning is a prime example. Regional cooperation among urban water utilities is a powerful mechanism for improving supply…

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The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast

Joy Hill, Jordan Kern, David E. Rupp, Nathalie Voisin, Gregory Characklis DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002400 Abstract: The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which control hydropower availability). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a…

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Communicating Drivers of Environmental Change Through Transdisciplinary Human-Environment Modeling

Andrew E. F. Allison, Mark E. Dickson, Karen T. Fisher, Simon F. Thrush DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001918 Abstract: A scientific storytelling approach is used to communicate results from a transdisciplinary model of human-environment estuarine systems for the purpose of developing system understanding and improving transdisciplinary communication. Questionnaires and a media analysis are…

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Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.

Jon Sampedro, Gokul Iyer, Siwa Msangi, Stephanie Waldhoff, Mohamad Hejazi and James A Edmonds DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43df Abstract: Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term…

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