Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Henry Ssembatya, Jordan D. Kern, Konstantinos Oikonomou, Nathalie Voisin, Casey D. Burleyson, and Kerem Ziya Akdemir Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004443 Abstract Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non-electrified households could adopt…

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Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi-Risk System

Julius Schlumberger, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Veerle Bril, Lars van der Weide, and Marleen de Ruiter. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: no DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004288 Abstract Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is complex due to interacting climate risks from interacting hazards and sectors. We develop a…

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Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi-Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview

Mariana Madruga de Brito, Jan Sodoge, Alexander Fekete, Michael Hagenlocher, Elco Koks, Christian Kuhlicke, Gabriele Messori, Marleen de Ruiter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Philip J. Ward Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: no DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003906 Abstract Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound and cascading impacts…

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A Framework for Multisector Scenarios of Outcomes for Well-Being and Resilience

Brian C. O’Neill, Jennifer Morris, Jonathan Lamontagne, John Weyant, and Marshall Wise Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, MultiSector Dynamics DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004343 Abstract Shared community scenarios of societal and environmental system changes have underpinned a broad range of research and assessment…

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Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors

Franklyn Kanyako, Jonathan Lamontagne, Abigail Snyder, Jennifer Morris, Gokul Iyer, Flannery Dolan, Yang Ou, & Kenneth Cox DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003930 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Multisector Dynamics Abstract Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system,…

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