Uncertainty analysis in multi-sector systems: Considerations for risk analysis, projection, and planning for complex systems

Vivek Srikrishnan,David C. Lafferty,Tony E. Wong,Jonathan R. Lamontagne,Julianne D. Quinn,Sanjib Sharma,Nusrat J. Molla,Jonathan D. Herman,Ryan L. Sriver,Jennifer F. Morris,Ben Seiyon Lee Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Acknowledged Support: Yes, MultiSector Dynamics Program DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002644 Abstract: Simulation models of multi-sector systems are increasingly used to understand…

read more

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

Jim Yoon, Patricia Romero-Lankao, Y. C. Ethan Yang, Christian Klassert, Nathan Urban, Kendra Kaiser, Klaus Keller, Brinda Yarlagadda, Nathalie Voisin, Patrick M. Reed, Richard Moss Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Acknowledged Support: Yes, MultiSector Dynamics Program DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002641 Abstract: The role of individual and collective…

read more

The Effects of Model Complexity on Model Output Uncertainty in Co-Evolved Coupled Natural-Human Systems

Chung-Yi Lin, Yi-Chen Ethan Yang DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002403 Abstract: Studies have recently focused on using coupled natural-human systems (CNHS) to inform policymaking. However, model uncertainty can increase with model complexity and affect the variance of the model outcomes. Therefore, this study explores an uncertainty analysis of coupled hydrological and human decision…

read more

Can Exploratory Modeling of Water Scarcity Vulnerabilities and Robustness Be Scenario Neutral?

J. D. Quinn, A. Hadjimichael, P. M. Reed, S. Steinschneider Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling, Program Acknowledged Support: No, other Non-DOE EESM source of support DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001650 Abstract: Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in…

read more

The Greater Mekong’s Climate-Water-Energy Nexus: How ENSO-Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO2 Emissions

A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Thanh Duc Dang, Hung T. T. Nguyen, Rachel Koh, Stefano Galelli Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling, Program Acknowledged Support: No, other Non-DOE EESM source of support DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001814 Abstract: The Greater Mekong Subregion is a transnational area bound together by…

read more

Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan H. Kwakkel, Frans Klijn, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hedwig van Delden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling, Program Acknowledged Support: No, other Non-DOE EESM source of support DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001939 Abstract: The need for explicitly considering equity in climate…

read more

The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina’s Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

Thomas B. Wild, Zarrar Khan, Mengqi Zhao, Micaela Suriano, Julia L. Bereslawski, Paula Roberts, Jose Casado, Marcelo Gaviño-Novillo, Leon Clarke, Mohamad Hejazi, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Raul Muñoz-Castillo, Chris Vernon, Abigail Snyder, Brinda Yarlagadda, Abigail Birnbaum, Jonathan Lamontagne, Dave White, Glorynel Ojeda-Matos Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems…

read more

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid’s Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Jacob Wessel, Jordan D. Kern, Nathalie Voisin, Konstantinos Oikonomou, Jannik Haas Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, MultiSector Dynamics Program DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002187 Abstract: Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how…

read more

Representing Socio-Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Jennifer Morris, John Reilly, Sergey Paltsev, Andrei Sokolov, Kenneth Cox Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, MultiSector Dynamics Program DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002239 Abstract: Socio-economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions…

read more