The Effects of Model Complexity on Model Output Uncertainty in Co-Evolved Coupled Natural-Human Systems

Chung-Yi Lin, Yi-Chen Ethan Yang DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002403 Abstract: Studies have recently focused on using coupled natural-human systems (CNHS) to inform policymaking. However, model uncertainty can increase with model complexity and affect the variance of the model outcomes. Therefore, this study explores an uncertainty analysis of coupled hydrological and human decision…

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Can Exploratory Modeling of Water Scarcity Vulnerabilities and Robustness Be Scenario Neutral?

J. D. Quinn, A. Hadjimichael, P. M. Reed, S. Steinschneider DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001650 Abstract: Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for “scenario-neutral” analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios…

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The Greater Mekong’s Climate-Water-Energy Nexus: How ENSO-Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO2 Emissions

A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Thanh Duc Dang, Hung T. T. Nguyen, Rachel Koh, Stefano Galelli DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001814 Abstract: The Greater Mekong Subregion is a transnational area bound together by the Mekong River basin and its immense hydropower resources, historically seen as the backbone of regional economic development. The basin…

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Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan H. Kwakkel, Frans Klijn, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hedwig van Delden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001939 Abstract: The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, evaluations of adaptation often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results…

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The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina’s Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

Thomas B. Wild, Zarrar Khan, Mengqi Zhao, Micaela Suriano, Julia L. Bereslawski, Paula Roberts, Jose Casado, Marcelo Gaviño-Novillo, Leon Clarke, Mohamad Hejazi, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Raul Muñoz-Castillo, Chris Vernon, Abigail Snyder, Brinda Yarlagadda, Abigail Birnbaum, Jonathan Lamontagne, Dave White, Glorynel Ojeda-Matos DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001970 Abstract: This study seeks to understand how Argentina’s…

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Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid’s Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Jacob Wessel, Jordan D. Kern, Nathalie Voisin, Konstantinos Oikonomou, Jannik Haas DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002187 Abstract: Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid’s vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ…

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Representing Socio-Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Jennifer Morris, John Reilly, Sergey Paltsev, Andrei Sokolov, Kenneth Cox DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002239 Abstract: Socio-economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait…

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Power and Pathways: Exploring Robustness, Cooperative Stability, and Power Relationships in Regional Infrastructure Investment and Water Supply Management Portfolio Pathways

David F. Gold,Patrick M. Reed,David E. Gorelick,Gregory W. Characklis DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002472 Abstract: Cooperative management of natural resources is a key component of a transition to a sustainable society and urban water supply planning is a prime example. Regional cooperation among urban water utilities is a powerful mechanism for improving supply…

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