What drives uncertainty surrounding riverine flood risks?

Iman Hosseini-Shakib, Atieh Alipour, Benjamin Seiyon Lee, Vivek Srikrishnan, Robert E. Nicholas, Klaus Keller, and Sanjib Sharma. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131055 Abstract Designing strategies to manage flood risks is complicated by the often large uncertainties surrounding flood risk projections. Uncertainty surrounding riverine flood risks can stem from choices regarding boundary…

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Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

John T. Fasullo, Julie M. Caron, Adam Phillips, Hui Li, Jadwiga H. Richter, Richard B. Neale, Nan Rosenbloom, Gary Strand, Sasha Glanville, Yuanpu Li, Flavio Lehner, Gerald Meehl, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, and Julie Arblaster Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged…

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Climate policy and the SDGs agenda: how does near-term action on nexus SDGs influence the achievement of long-term climate goals?

Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Mathijs Harmsen, Muhammad Awais, Edward Byers, Vassilis Daioglou, Jonathan Doelman, Adriano Vinca, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef P van Vuuren DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3973 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: No Abstract The sustainable development goals (SDGs) represent the global ambition to…

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Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors

Franklyn Kanyako, Jonathan Lamontagne, Abigail Snyder, Jennifer Morris, Gokul Iyer, Flannery Dolan, Yang Ou, & Kenneth Cox DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003930 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Multisector Dynamics Abstract Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system,…

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Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Jim Yoon, Nathalie Voisin, Christian Klassert, Travis Thurber, and Wenwei Xu DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Multisector Dynamics Abstract Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of…

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Air-sea coupling influence on projected changes in major Atlantic hurricane events

Derrick K. Danso, Christina M. Patricola, Jaison Kurian, Ping Chang, Philip Klotzbach, and I. -I. Lin DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100649 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: YES – Regional and Global Model Analysis Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) projections with atmosphere-only models are associated with…

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Agricultural market integration preserves future global water resources

Neal T. Graham, Gokul Iyer, Thomas B. Wild, Flannery Dolan, Jonathan Lamontagne, & Katherine Calvin DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.08.003 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Multisector Dynamics Abstract Traded agricultural goods redistribute water, virtually, around the world to satisfy unmet demands while limiting excess water extraction in importing regions. However, gaps remain in our…

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Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century

Jing Gao & Melissa S. Bukovsky DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42084-x Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: YES (Multisector Dynamics, Regional & Global Model Analysis) Abstract Climate change and global urbanization have often been anticipated to increase future population exposure (frequency and intensity) to…

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