Understanding the Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California

Rohini S. Gupta, Scott Steinschneider, and Patrick M. Reed Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003909 Abstract To aid California’s water sector to better understand and manage future climate extremes, we present a method for creating a regionally consistent ensemble of plausible…

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Participatory Modeling for Analyzing Interactions Between High-Priority Sustainable Development Goals to Promote Local Sustainability

Reihaneh Bandari, Enayat A. Moallemi, Katrina Szetey, Claire Flanagan-Smith, Michalis Hadjikakou, Raymundo Marcos-Martinez, Ali Kharrazi, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, and Brett A. Bryan Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: no DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003948 Abstract Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is challenging given the complex interactions between different SDGs and their spillover effects….

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How Should Diverse Stakeholder Interests Shape Evaluations of Complex Water Resources Systems Robustness When Confronting Deeply Uncertain Changes?

Sai Veena Sunkara, Riddhi Singh, David Gold, Patrick Reed,  and Ajay Bhave Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: no DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003469 Abstract Robustness analysis can support the design and operation of large-scale water infrastructure projects confronting deeply uncertain futures. However, diverse actors, contextual specificities, sectoral interests,…

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Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets

Dylan Hogan and Wolfram Schlenker  Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48388-w Abstract Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Estimating the effects of weather-induced…

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Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Henry Ssembatya, Jordan D. Kern, Konstantinos Oikonomou, Nathalie Voisin, Casey D. Burleyson, and Kerem Ziya Akdemir Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004443 Abstract Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non-electrified households could adopt…

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Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024 Abstract Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply…

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Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi-Risk System

Julius Schlumberger, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Veerle Bril, Lars van der Weide, and Marleen de Ruiter. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: no DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004288 Abstract Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is complex due to interacting climate risks from interacting hazards and sectors. We develop a…

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Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi-Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview

Mariana Madruga de Brito, Jan Sodoge, Alexander Fekete, Michael Hagenlocher, Elco Koks, Christian Kuhlicke, Gabriele Messori, Marleen de Ruiter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Philip J. Ward Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: no DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003906 Abstract Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound and cascading impacts…

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A Framework for Multisector Scenarios of Outcomes for Well-Being and Resilience

Brian C. O’Neill, Jennifer Morris, Jonathan Lamontagne, John Weyant, and Marshall Wise Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, MultiSector Dynamics DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004343 Abstract Shared community scenarios of societal and environmental system changes have underpinned a broad range of research and assessment…

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