Asian-Australian summer monsoons linkage to ENSO strengthened by global warming

Chenxi Xu, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Krishna Borhara, Brendan Buckley, Ning Tan, Yaru Zhao, Wenling An, Masaki Sano, Takeshi Nakatsuka & Zhengtang Guo

Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Regional and Global Model Analysis


The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) used to affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and Australian summer monsoon (AusSM) precipitation in different ways but global warming may have changed it. This study built robust annual ASM (AusSM) precipitation reconstructions during 1588–2013 (1588–1999) to examine the ENSO-monsoon relationship and how it has changed. During the period of 1588–1850 when natural climate variability was dominant, the ENSO-monsoon and inter-monsoon relationship was weak and non-stationary. Since 1850, however, both the inter-monsoon and ENSO-monsoon relationships saw an enhancement and this trend has been persistent to the present day, suggesting the influence of anthropogenic climate warming. Further analysis of climate model projections found that global warming can strengthen the ENSO-monsoon association that, subsequently, acts to synchronize the ASM and AusSM variations.

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