Welcome to the MSD Working Group on Uncertainty Quantification and Scenario Development

The Uncertainty Quantification and Scenario Development working group studies the propagation of uncertainties, including deep uncertainties, through multi-sector systems. We are interested in understanding how uncertainty interacts with complex system dynamics and cross-sectoral feedback mechanisms to affect the robustness and resilience of these systems. We also conduct research into the construction of scenarios to capture the range of uncertainties in outcome space in the presence of deep uncertainty.