Welcome to the Multisector Dynamics Uncertainty blog! This blog provides a mix of training, discussion of recent publications, and updates on news and UQ/SD events. If you have content you would like to contribute to the blog, please contact Multisector.Uncertainty@gmail.com.
Consider submitting an abstract to MSD session at AGU 2021!
We would like to draw your attention to MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) session at AGU21 Fall Meeting being held December 13-17, 2021 in New Orleans, LA. We welcome the abstract for session GC064 – MultiSector Dynamics: Uncertainty Characterization for Coupled Natural-Human Systems
Invited speaker: Dr. Klaus Keller and Dr. Edoardo Borgomeo
Abstract Deadline: August 04, 2021
The Uncertainty Quantification and Scenario Development (UQ/SD) working group is meeting biweekly (every alternate Friday).
The current focus of the group is on wrapping up a review paper on “Uncertainty and Multisector Dynamics” to be submitted on Earth’s Future Special Issue: Modeling MultiSector Dynamics to Inform Adaptive Pathways. The deadline for the submission is on October 01, 2021. The group has completed a synthesis of relevant literature, and is in the process of finalizing the storyboard for the paper. If you have work you would like considered in our review paper of UQ/SD in MSD, please forward it to: email@example.com
Dynamic adaptation to climate change: framing the challenge of uncertainty characterization for human-environmental systems
By Jon Herman, UC Davis Multi-sector infrastructure systems face a number of uncertainties that are difficult to characterize and quantify. These include exogenous uncertainty in climate forcing, propagated through a chain of models and downscaling procedures; endogenous uncertainty in human-environmental system dynamics across scales; and sampling uncertainty due to the finite length of historical observations…
J. D. Quinn, A. Hadjimichael, P. M. Reed, S. Steinschneider DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001650 Abstract:Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for “scenario‐neutral” analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods….