Welcome to the Multisector Dynamics Uncertainty blog! This blog provides a mix of training, discussion of recent publications, and updates on news and UQ/SD events. If you have content you would like to contribute to the blog, please contact Multisector.Uncertainty@gmail.com.
Dynamic adaptation to climate change: framing the challenge of uncertainty characterization for human-environmental systems
By Jon Herman, UC Davis Multi-sector infrastructure systems face a number of uncertainties that are difficult to characterize and quantify. These include exogenous uncertainty in climate forcing, propagated through a chain of models and downscaling procedures; endogenous uncertainty in human-environmental system dynamics across scales; and sampling uncertainty due to the finite length of historical observations…
J. D. Quinn, A. Hadjimichael, P. M. Reed, S. Steinschneider DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001650 Abstract:Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for “scenario‐neutral” analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods….