Welcome to the Multisector Dynamics Uncertainty blog! This blog provides a mix of training, discussion of recent publications, and updates on news and UQ/SD events.  If you have content you would like to contribute to the blog, please contact Multisector.Uncertainty@gmail.com.

Consider submitting an abstract to MSD session at AGU 2021!

We would like to draw your attention to MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) session at AGU21 Fall Meeting being held December 13-17, 2021 in New Orleans, LA. We welcome the abstract for session GC064 – MultiSector Dynamics: Uncertainty Characterization for Coupled Natural-Human Systems

Link: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Session/118791

Invited speaker: Dr. Klaus Keller and Dr. Edoardo Borgomeo

Abstract Deadline: August 04, 2021

The Uncertainty Quantification and Scenario Development (UQ/SD) working group is meeting biweekly (every alternate Friday).

The current focus of the group is on wrapping up a review paper on “Uncertainty and Multisector Dynamics” to be submitted on Earth’s Future Special Issue: Modeling MultiSector Dynamics to Inform Adaptive Pathways. The deadline for the submission is on October 01, 2021. The group has completed a synthesis of relevant literature, and is in the process of finalizing the storyboard for the paper. If you have work you would like considered in our review paper of UQ/SD in MSD, please forward it to: multisector.uncertainty@gmail.com

Dynamic adaptation to climate change: framing the challenge of uncertainty characterization for human-environmental systems

By Jon Herman, UC Davis Multi-sector infrastructure systems face a number of uncertainties that are difficult to characterize and quantify. These include exogenous uncertainty in climate forcing, propagated through a chain of models and downscaling procedures; endogenous uncertainty in human-environmental system dynamics across scales; and sampling uncertainty due to the finite length of historical observations…

Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?

J. D. Quinn, A. Hadjimichael, P. M. Reed, S. Steinschneider DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001650 Abstract:Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for “scenario‐neutral” analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods….