Uncertainty is a key feature of multi-sectoral systems experiencing changes to both external forcings and complex internal interactions and dynamics. Both forcing changes and the internal system dynamics are subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties, which complicate system modeling. Additional uncertainties result from the use and coupling of different types of data and classes of models. Understanding the dynamics of these systems requires careful characterization of uncertainties and sensitivities, while simulations of future responses to changing external conditions and development pathways involve the use of probability distributions and/or scenarios which reflect the underlying uncertainties. The resulting characterizations of scenario and parametric uncertainty are important inputs for understanding the robustness and resilience of multi-sectoral systems.
This working group will address common sources of uncertainty in multi-sector dynamics, including uncertainties in scenarios and forcing, model inadequacy, and feedbacks within coupled systems. We will develop/foster a cross-cutting collaborative network of researchers to address multi-disciplinary problems in multi-sector systems, such as: 1) scenario development; 2) uncertainty propagation/interactions; 3) model/data/methods comparability; and 4) coordinated sensitivity analysis. A key focus will be identifying relevant processes and scales important for interactions and co-evolution of multi-sectoral systems.