Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

John T. Fasullo, Julie M. Caron, Adam Phillips, Hui Li, Jadwiga H. Richter, Richard B. Neale, Nan Rosenbloom, Gary Strand, Sasha Glanville, Yuanpu Li, Flavio Lehner, Gerald Meehl, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, and Julie Arblaster Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged…

read more

Climate policy and the SDGs agenda: how does near-term action on nexus SDGs influence the achievement of long-term climate goals?

Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Mathijs Harmsen, Muhammad Awais, Edward Byers, Vassilis Daioglou, Jonathan Doelman, Adriano Vinca, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef P van Vuuren DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3973 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: No Abstract The sustainable development goals (SDGs) represent the global ambition to…

read more

Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors

Franklyn Kanyako, Jonathan Lamontagne, Abigail Snyder, Jennifer Morris, Gokul Iyer, Flannery Dolan, Yang Ou, & Kenneth Cox DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003930 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Multisector Dynamics Abstract Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system,…

read more

Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Jim Yoon, Nathalie Voisin, Christian Klassert, Travis Thurber, and Wenwei Xu DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-899-2024 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Multisector Dynamics Abstract Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of…

read more

Air-sea coupling influence on projected changes in major Atlantic hurricane events

Derrick K. Danso, Christina M. Patricola, Jaison Kurian, Ping Chang, Philip Klotzbach, and I. -I. Lin DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100649 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: YES – Regional and Global Model Analysis Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) projections with atmosphere-only models are associated with…

read more

Agricultural market integration preserves future global water resources

Neal T. Graham, Gokul Iyer, Thomas B. Wild, Flannery Dolan, Jonathan Lamontagne, & Katherine Calvin DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.08.003 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Multisector Dynamics Abstract Traded agricultural goods redistribute water, virtually, around the world to satisfy unmet demands while limiting excess water extraction in importing regions. However, gaps remain in our…

read more

Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century

Jing Gao & Melissa S. Bukovsky DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42084-x Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: YES (Multisector Dynamics, Regional & Global Model Analysis) Abstract Climate change and global urbanization have often been anticipated to increase future population exposure (frequency and intensity) to…

read more

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Ryan A. McManamay, Chris R. Vernon, Min Chen, Isaac Thompson, Zarrar Khan & Kanishka B. Narayan DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01231-y Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: Yes, Multisector Dynamics Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of…

read more

Characterizing uncertainty in Community Land Model version 5 hydrological applications in the United States

Hongxiang Yan, Ning Sun, Hisham Eldardiry, Travis B. Thurber, Patrick M. Reed, Keyvan Malek, Rohini Gupta, Daniel Kennedy, Sean C. Swenson, Linying Wang, Dan Li, Chris R. Vernon, Casey D. Burleyson & Jennie S. Rice  DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02049-7 Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged…

read more